UK Terrorism Risk in 2026: What Organisations Need to Know
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- Feb 2
- 3 min read
The UK’s terrorism threat level is currently assessed as SUBSTANTIAL, meaning an attack is likely.
That assessment is set by MI5 and the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC).
What Pool Re’s Annual Terrorism Threat Report 2025 does is explain what that threat looks like in practice, and what organisations should realistically be planning for as we move through 2026.
This blog does not introduce new guidance. It helps leaders understand and prioritise what already exists.
What the UK terrorism threat looks like today
The report confirms that Islamist terrorism remains the primary terrorism threat to the UK, accounting for the majority of MI5’s counter-terrorism caseload. Alongside this, Extreme Right-Wing terrorism and other forms of serious violence remain significant and persistent risks.
A consistent theme throughout the report is that most attacks are likely to be carried out by individuals or very small groups, rather than large, organised networks.
Why certain attack methods are more likely right now
Pool Re’s analysis explains that the most likely attack methods at present are:
Bladed weapons
Vehicles used as weapons
Fire or arson
This is not because hostile actors lack ambition or intent.
It is because these methods:
Are easier to access
Require less preparation
Reduce opportunities for early detection by policing/security services
The report is clear that there remains a realistic possibility that terrorist actors could have the capability to conduct more complex attacks, such as firearms or improvised explosive devices. However, complex plots tend to take longer to plan and therefore create more opportunities for disruption by policing and security agencies.
In simple terms, low-sophistication attacks are currently more likely because they are harder to detect early, not because more complex methods are no longer sought.
Not all attackers are driven by ideology
One of the most important emerging issues highlighted in the report is the rise of Violence-Fascinated Individuals (VFIs).
These individuals may not be motivated by a clear political or religious ideology. Instead, they are driven by:
Personal grievance
Fascination with violence
A desire for notoriety or recognition
Prevent data referenced in the report shows a significant increase in referrals linked to fascination with extreme violence or mass-casualty attacks.
For organisations, this matters because:
Warning signs are often behavioural, not ideological
Targets may be chosen for personal or symbolic reasons
Incidents may not always be formally designated as terrorism, even though the harm is the same
Children, young people, and online exposure
The report highlights that children and young adults remain particularly vulnerable to radicalisation and exposure to harmful content online.
Key points include:
A notable proportion of terrorism-related arrests involve under-18s
The largest group of Prevent referrals is aged 11–15
Online platforms continue to play a major role in exposure to extreme material
This is not only a concern for schools. Any organisation with public-facing spaces, young staff, or environments where young people gather should understand this risk.
Technology: realistic risk, not science fiction
Pool Re’s assessment of emerging technology is measured and practical:
Artificial intelligence is being used mainly to support research, planning, and propaganda
Drones are more likely to be used for reconnaissance than attacks
3D-printed weapons remain an emerging, medium-term concern
The key message is clear: the risk is not futuristic technology...it is missed warning signs and lack of preparedness.
What organisations should focus on in 2026
Organisations do not need extreme or disproportionate security measures. They do need clarity, preparation, and leadership.
Review entrances, public areas, and vehicle access
Understand what hostile reconnaissance looks like in your environment
Reduce easy opportunities for rapid harm where reasonably practicable
Ensure staff know what to do in the early moments of an incident
Exercise plans so leaders are comfortable making decisions under pressure
Test communications, escalation routes, and coordination
Treat terrorism and serious violence as a leadership and governance issue
Link security planning to duty of care, reputation, and business continuity
Ensure roles, responsibilities, and decision-making authority are clear
A note on legal and regulatory context
Organisations should also be aware of emerging legal expectations under the Terrorism (Protection of Premises) legislation, commonly referred to as Martyn’s Law. While statutory guidance is still awaited, the direction of travel reinforces the importance of proportionate, risk-based protective security, aligned with existing free guidance from Protect UK and the NPSA
The bottom line
Pool Re’s Annual Terrorism Threat Report 2025 reinforces a balanced and realistic message:
The threat is real
Attacks are often simple
UK policing and security agencies do an exceptional job disrupting threats and late-stage plots, but they cannot prevent every attack
Organisations that are prepared cope better when incidents do occur
Good security in 2026 is not about fear or over-reaction. It is about protecting what matters, preparing people to respond, and performing when it counts.
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